What will be future mail?
Part 1: From alarm fires up to now
Part 2: Interesting in mail world
As well as any system connecting people among themselves, mail endures evolution. Not the last place in this evolution is occupied by automation. So there were stars, but we here write about high technologies, and to pass by such interesting subject as information transfer, parcels and envelopes in the future, we simply could not. The history already knows many futuristic approaches to post processes (we will remember graceful, but become obsolete idea of pneumomail), so, in their future will be only more.
What first associations arising at you at the word "mail"? Slow workers of mail, the postman which cannot get to an entrance, the broken mail boxes in your house, forms and parcels post, the dense envelopes which have overcome hundreds kilometers … For some reason I see the bespilotnik of Amazon lowering a parcel directly on a threshold of the house; 3D-printers which are unpacking "parcel" from shop; e-mail of new generation. In what a difference between us? I am an optimist.
For system with long history at mail there are too much problems. And, they collect together with increase in demand at post services (and in last article we said that despite Internet development, the turn of post parcels, transfers and departures grows annually). Increase in volumes of electronic correspondence and spam, load of a road traffic, growth of number of Internet shops and absence of growth of responsible delivery services. There are also good news. Evolution of system means growth of the general utility and decrease in quantity of shortcomings. And this process together with the solution of problems already began.
Give for a minute it is representable that mail will continue to develop in that direction in which develops now. Let’s present the future of our mail what it will be?
E-mail and correspondence
I think, to say that email dies, silly. E-mail will exist still very much and very long. But it does not mean that it will not change from the point of view of a form or use. Absolutely on the contrary: ability to evolve leaves e-mail corresponding to our way of life and constantly growing Internet. It is logical to assume that this evolution will proceed. In the near future electromail becomes:
- Easier (transition from letters to messages)
- More cleverly (with AI support)
- Svyazannya (platform type)
- The multiuser
Easier. The formalism of e-mail will slowly die. If someone sends 50 or more letters daily, it would be quite good to facilitate to it life, having saved time for selection of good heading for a field «a letter subject». Messages become shorter (the usual letter of 2020 will be similar to the most rough letter of 2000), will include more smilies (Emoji type) and, probably, it is more гифок (so that the professional letter of 2020 will be similar to the typical letter of 2000). Systems of an instant exchange of messages will gain nevertheless popularity, yet will not force out or will not be entered in e-mail habitual to us.
Svyazannya. Additional communication will work in both parties. Addition of data to your letter and in general in your e-mail client will be simpler. The idea of a contextual mail box is not opened yet. And on the contrary to get data from the electronic letter and make them available to foreign persons it can to be difficult today. Though mail quietly adds events in your calendar, synchronizes postal addresses with the list of contacts, adds tasks in the list of affairs, email as a whole demands the best integration.
More cleverly. The great number of people and money was invested in attempt to solve spam problem on e-mail, and is quite successful: now fight against spam represents, probably, the best example of use of artificial intelligence. Mail with AI support will be the following step after a kontekstualizatsiya (a platform to e-mail about which we spoke above). Google in the ranks of the first will develop the virtual assistant who not only will be trained from your behavior, but also will create collective behavior of millions other users of electromail. Automatically marked messages, selective notices, addition in a calendar, request of the answer, «to remind in a week» and so on, all this becomes habitual business.
It is more than people. The protocol of e-mail was rather flexible to live till today, but its weakness calls into question into its further survival. For example, any correspondence for three very quickly turns into a nightmare. Quotes of correspondences collect and the best clients pull on a bottom. In fact, many functions represent copies of functions of an offline era: in a digital form they are awful and erroneous. That Google Docs made about Word documents, someone else should make with e-mail.
Parcels and automation
So pneumomail looked
Delivery of the goods to the house becomes more and more actual. Also there are two technologies which can overturn completely this system to the best: 3D-printers and pilotless thrones. Not so long ago we investigated possibility of development of the decentralized system of production of the personalized products on small "author’s" заводиках with application of technologies of the 3D-press. In brief it works so: let’s allow, you wanted to yourselves the pleasant plastic cover for the smartphone. Instead of ordering it from China or to go on local shops of accessories, you send the order for local factory of the personalized production. Within your city the case necessary to you, the necessary color (and if it is clothes, and the sizes necessary still), is unpacked on the 3D-printer, is polished, packed and goes to you practically in day of the order. Simpler than a pizza to order. Consider that the choice of materials nowadays limited, increases every year.
But who will deliver you this case? If each resident orders the goods at least once a year, for the average small town of such orders will be gathered under one million a year. In practice it will pour out in congestion of a post network and need of connection of huge number of couriers. Fortunately, leading world networks consider possibility of use of pilotless thrones for deliveries of the goods, in particular, Amazon. Bending around skyscrapers, ignoring traffic jams, without demanding human intervention, such throne a bee will buzz through all city and will lower the order directly to you in a palm.
Behind examples far it is not necessary to go. Active life of citizens leads to emergence more and more number of various deliveries, a pizza, a land, alcohol, the goods, the whole menus with food and other. Combine two above-mentioned systems — and need for delivery of the goods of any complexity from other country, it is possible to tell, does not remain. Mail in essence does not merge at all — is transformed to a services sector on sending and receiving the goods, products, parcels post, money transfers. However, development of the transport networks, new ways of movement (Hyperloop, supersonic post planes), modernization of post equipment, and also development of alternative delivery services and mail should accelerate essentially rates of circulation of parcels in the nature.
Certainly, it is work not one year. Will pass, probably, tens years before local factories of listing and a flotilla of thrones of delivery become reality. But if the future of mail is such, unequivocally it is necessary to wait for it.
In the previous articles we mentioned that as of 2011 "Russian Post" had only 2 automated classifying sections of the center (for comparison, at the USA — 250). You represent, in how many time will be accelerated work of our national mail if it gets the automated centers of sorting? And as a whole, automation even parts of the most sluggish elements can quite accelerate rates of a post turn in times, if not in tens and hundreds times. Certainly, eventually all this will surely come, but we will not think.
However, on this site we (and you, dear readers) got used to see echoes of the far future filled with fantastic and futuristic elements. Separate technologies can transform mail beyond recognition. But about it in the following article.
The special project «Mail history» is prepared with Banderolka company support. Delivery of any goods from the USA to Russia and CIS countries with an individual approach and the low prices.